BTC $68,200 — Q1 Closes, -46% From ATH, Worst Quarter Since 2022
BTC $68,233 (+2.3%). Q1 ends. ATH $126K to $68K = -46%. Worst quarter since 2022 Q2. But closed above $68K.
Catalyst
Q1 close — ATH $126K → $68K = -46%, worst quarter since 2022 + daily close above $68K
Economic Events
- Tuesday — BTC $68,233 (+2.3%), second consecutive green candle
- Tuesday — Q1 close — down 46% from ATH $126,198
- Tuesday — Intraday low $65,950 — $65K support held for 4th day
- Tuesday — Intraday high $68,495 — $68K breakout attempt
- Tuesday — Worst quarterly performance since 2022 Q2
TL;DR
- BTC $68,233 — +2.3%, Q1 closes with second consecutive green candle
- Q1 performance: ATH $126K → $68K = -46% — worst since 2022
- $65K support held for 4 consecutive days — bottoming pattern forming
- Closed above $68K — dead cat checklist 1/3 passed
Market Overview
| Asset | Last | Change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | $68,233 | +2.3% (24h) | Closed above $68K — short-term reversal signal |
| High/Low | $68,495 / $65,950 | Range $2,545 | 3 days of $65K support + higher highs forming |
| Q1 Performance | -46% | ATH $126K → $68K | Worst quarter since 2022 Q2 (-56%) |
Q1 Is Over — What the Numbers Say
Q1 2026 is done. BTC closed at $68,233, down from $126,198 ATH. That's -46%.
Worst quarter since Q2 2022 (-56%). All-time high in January, cut in half by March. Three months.
Looking at this number, you'll think one of two things. "It's dropped this much, it can drop more." Or "It's dropped this much, a bounce is due." Both are emotions. Numbers are not emotions.
2022 Comparison — Similar but Different
2022 Q2: -56%. LUNA collapse + 3AC bankruptcy + Celsius insolvency. Systemic risk.
2026 Q1: -46%. Iran war + tariffs + macro uncertainty. External shock.
There's a difference. 2022 was crypto blowing up from the inside. This time it came from outside. External shocks have visible endpoints. Wars end. Tariffs get negotiated.
But "visible endpoint" and "it's over" are very different statements.
$68K Close — Dead Cat Checklist Update
Yesterday's failed $68K close attempt. Today it succeeded. $68,233.
Dead cat checklist update. Volume confirmation — not yet. Daily close above $68K — passed. Pullback without retesting $65K — not yet.
Score: 1 out of 3 passed. Full bottom confirmation is still pending. But it's better than yesterday.
Q2 begins. Historically, the average return in the quarter following the worst quarter is +34%. But averages lie well. Your quarter isn't average.
Key Levels
| Asset | Support | Resistance | Bias |
|---|
Scenarios
TTL Take
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